- Consider creating a brief that explains how
climate change might alter your organisations’ ability to deliver its key
services, focusing on the experience of end users.
- Building on this narrative, once you have
identified the potential negative outcomes, you can focus on how different that
narrative would be if your organisation had planned for climate adaptation, so
was resilient to climate change impacts.
- Find opportunities to share scenarios and
narratives that you’ve developed with colleagues. To be able to prepare for
potential climate impacts, it is important to consider how climate related
risks and opportunities may evolve and their possible implications to your
organisation under different conditions. Scenario analysis is one way to do
Scenarios help organisations
consider how they may perform given a range of future states. They help
understand the strategic implications of climate change and how an organisation
is positioned to address climate risks and opportunities.
A starting point for scenario
analysis is qualitative scenarios, narratives or storylines. These are
descriptive tales or narratives of plausible future climates and can be used to
explore the range of implications of climate risks and opportunities for an
organisation. These scenarios and
storylines offer a useful way to link physical risks with human aspects of
climate change to communicate the potential effects. Steps include:
and define a range of scenarios. Highlight a diverse range of future states
that may occur – ensure these are plausible, distinctive, relevant and
challenging. Scenarios should explore alternatives to business as usual.
organisational impacts. Assess the
possible consequences of the range of scenarios to the organisation.
possible responses Using this analysis, identify options to enhance
organisational resilience to plausible climate related risks and opportunities.
Once comfortable with qualitative
scenarios, organisations may wish to use quantitative analysis to illustrate
potential pathways and outcomes. If so
review scenarios prepared by the IPCC and utilised within UKCP18.